Google’s (GOOG) Android will beat Apple’s (AAPL) iOS for iPhone in market share by the end of the year, according to International Data Corp.
Next, Microsoft’s (MSFT) Windows Phone OS will conquer the iOS as Nokia (NOK), which is phasing out its Symbian OS by 2016, adopts it.
IDC is predicting that Microsoft’s markets share will reach 20.3 percent in 2015 while Apple will be at 16.9 percent.
IDC said Android will be the leader with 43.8 percent in 2015 a year when one billion smartphones are expected to ship. That’s about double the number of smartphones expected to ship this year.
The forecasts, which are being questioned, appear in IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker report. Gartner has made similar rosy predictions for Microsoft. And IDC has revised numbers from earlier this year.
How will things look later this year?
PCWorld reported: “At the end of this year, Android is projected to have the most market share at 38.9 percent, IDC says, followed by Nokia's Symbian at 20.6 percent, and then iOS at 18.2 percent. However, Nokia has declared Symbian dead and its current market position relates largely to Nokia's traditionally dominant position in global markets, particularly those outside the U.S., IDC noted.”
Nokia experienced declining sales when it announced its plans. And the Nokia phones on WP aren’t expected to hit the market until later this year.
Keir Thomas reported in PCWorld that IDC is betting that Nokia’s adoption of Microsoft’s OS will be easy.
But there is plenty of skepticism about a smooth transition. Stephen Patel, an analyst with Gleacher & Company, said, “Our checks suggest mixed carrier support for Nokia’s transition to WP.”
Ryan Kim said in GigaOm: “(T)he latest predictions show how perilous it can be to make firm forecasts in such a fast-moving market. So much of the WP7 prediction is predicated on a smooth transition for Nokia. But if anything, the latest news out of Nokia suggests that it’s anyone’s guess how well that will turn out.
Android cutting into Symbian already
Nicholas Kolakowski noted in eWeek: “Android sales are supposedly eating into market share once occupied by Symbian.”
Also, IDC thinks that the Mango update of Windows Phone 7 will give Microsoft a boost.
Kim said: “Windows Phone 7 is a solid operating system and will get even better with the Mango software update this fall. But it’s not enough to just have a good OS. WebOS was solid, too. You need a lot of other things to fall into place, like great carrier support. Yet, some are questioning operator support for WP7 right now. And with Android and iOS building huge ecosystems, challengers need to find ways to leap ahead.”
International Business Times said: “(T)here is inherent conflict of interest between analyst firms like Gartner and IDC, since the majority of the companies they write about also are clients. IDC has done some mighty Microsoft-friendly research or white papers over the years. But this business about Windows Phone is just too much to believe. IDC's forecast validates Microsoft's Nokia-Windows Phone distribution deal without even one handset shipped. It's sheer speculation in a market changing so fast -- Gartner and IDC are forced to revise their forecasts every couple of months (without really acknowledging how wrong they were so short a time earlier).”
Thor_The_Thunder
With Nokia's help ?? Nokia could not help itself all these years...now they are going to help Microsoft ? ? Nokia could not get its head out of its butt over Symbian and brick style/type phones and now they are going to help Microsoft ? Over the years I have had quite a few Nokia phones and headsets. I think the reason that Nokia got fooked is that they grew complacent early on. I have used (and discarded) phones like Nokia 3650, Nokia 6682, Nokia N770 Internet Tablet, Nokia Blue-tooth headset HS-4W etc.
But then Nokia messed up, they started future development for better Nokia Internet Tablets without really looking at the need of the times and checking out the developments that other companies like Apple, RIM etc were involved in. In short they forgot to look over the developments that was taking place in the field of handhelds. They grew too big for their britches thinking that nothing can ever overtake them at their game. Now lets look at Nokia's phone the 6682. It was a great phone but for the life of me I will never understand why Nokia could not provide a way to easily update its firmware. It is much easier to upgrade the BIOS of a half assed broken computer than to upgrade a Nokia phone software. Then they insisted on using their own piece of shit OS called Symbian.
I will also mention the fact that the Nokia blue-tooth Headset HS-4W was almost like a space-age innovation for its time. Even now it works well with iPhones but is growing long in age. So what exactly happened ? Why is Nokia at the stage that it is now? Well, I believe it is because Nokia forgot that it was customer oriented Company, all the great people who made Nokia what it was like five years ago left. Nokia has now become a toy in the hand of some people whose have no clue as to what it happening with technology and in the world of mobile phones. While some of such heads are rolling now, it is along way off from Nokia becoming a great phone company again. Then there are people like Quim Gill, who at one time seemed to liaise well between some Nokia customers (especially of Nokia N770 and perhaps other internet Tablets) and with Nokia management, but only till the extent that they could shove down the customers throat, whatever technology they felt was good for Nokia. There are and so many other who had no clue as to where Nokia's developmental efforts were going.
During its time the Nokia 770 was a great product. I really liked the Nokia IT 770 , it had one of the best displays of its time and could have given the iPhone a run for its money, had Nokia decided to develop it further. It had an incredibly good screen but was rather underpowered. Using the stylus, one could manipulate it easily but the idea of having to learn to use a whole new OS was frustrating. It had no option for future development as a phone or software base like Apple has now for its iPhone. Nokia did not see the need to think this way and even if they did think this way, they were not innovative enough to think outside of Apple.
I have seen the Nokia N900 it is a bulky brick of a phone and it has Linux for OS. It is no more user friendly then HP computer's Customer Service is to its customers. Here once again we see Nokia trying to butt head with great OSes like Android and iOS etc. Nokia is still going against the wind. They fail to embrace the prevalent technologies of the day and then cry wolf when they fall to the level of being second or even third level phone company. I strongly doubt that they will ever come back as the number one mobile phone maker company in the world ever.
Most Nokia high end smartphones are bricks. I don't understand what they cannot make sleek and easy 'on the hand' phones. This is why I said that all Nokia Technology is outdated.
" R.I.P Nokia...
We had joy, we had fun,
we had seasons in the sun
but the hills that we climbed
were just seasons out of time " ! !